Four Peas to Create An Authentic Alternative History: Probability

In my first post I discussed the Premise of a story as it pertains to its ultimate success, especially when it comes to the genre of Alternative History or Historical Fiction. We now move on to part two

P#: Probability

If The Premise is the "What If?" question, then the Probability of your Alt-Hi is best defined by the "Who Cares?" question. Why do you need a "Who Cares?" question? Because the number of what if questions is infinite. To borrow a Sci-Fi construct, every possible choice results in an alternate universe where that choice has been made. Now I like this theory because it means that somewhere out there there is a version of myself that married his high school sweetheart. Of course, there is a reality where we never met. Now for the sake of time I limited the possible choices to three, but regardless, in the scheme of a novel, all three choices are equally boring and would get a response of who cares.

Now what is the point of my example? Simply put, while any decision in history could have had another possible outcome, unless that outcome can grab even the authors interest, certainly your reader wont come along for the ride. Now the Sci-Fi writer doesn't have to worry about probability. In some cases, the more fanciful the premise, the better. With an Alt-Hi, one of the cornerstones of the genre is HISTORY, as in "Could this actually have happened?". 

Still, it has to be fresh. In matters of American History, one of the most overused premises is "What if The South had won the war?" Unfortunately for readers, the answer is almost always "slavery is still around". The problem with this is that the rise of technology even at the time had made slave labor just about obsolete, so that if war had not intervened, the peculiar institution might have died off within ten years. Even so, the continuation of Southern Slavery is most likely the weakest premises to focus on. because its probability is very low.
 
In the case of my original premise, you have to ask, at any time in "the Old West", did conditions arise that would have created a "Spark" that lit the fuse of civil war like happened at Fort Sumter. In my researching of the premise, I found a number of conditions that would make my premise probable.

1. At the outbreak of the Civil War, many frontier posts were either abandoned or had their troop numbers severely downgraded and the troops sent South to assist the War, leaving the settlers to face the Natives on their own. Approximately 10 years later, with "Reconstruction" coming to an end, those same troops returned, in true Mighty Mouse style ("Here I come to save the day..."), hoping that the settlers would be grateful for their "protection".
2. By virtue of the Treaty of Purchase in 1867, the People of Alaska (native Russians and Aleut) were entitled to "The enjoyment of all the rights, advantages and immunities of Citizens of The United States" if they remained there THREE YEARS (1870). In fact, Alaska had not even the most basic of Civil Law and was a true example of the Wild, Wild, West until 1884.
3. The Western States of Arkansas, Louisiana Texas and Missouri had all been participants in the Civil War, and the first three were subjected to the punishment called "reconstruction" which was instituted in response to Lincoln's assassination and birthed the Klan. These states were chafing under the military yoke and could have been spoiling for another fight.
4. The first war had reached into the West with more than just membership in the Confederacy. There were battles at  Palmito Hill, TX (May 12-13, 1865) ; Pea Ridge, AR (March 7, 1862);  Sabine Pass, TX (September 9, 1863); Valverde, NM (February 20-21, 1862); Glorietta Pass, NM (March 26-28, 1862) and Lawrence, KS (August 21, 1863). War had touched the west enough to raise the possibility of an insurrection, but not enough to convince them of its horrors.

I think these four examples are sufficient evidence to overcome the who cares response and establish the probability of the premise. Will that be enough for my story, or for yours for that matter. That is dependent on the third pea.